This year, the coronavirus has polarized all media attention and completely wiped out the seasonal flu epidemic. European countries have even stopped its surveillance altogether ... This is why no one will tell you about the real flu numbers in 2020. It's deplorable but we still tried to find the seventh company!
A survey carried out for Neo Health n ° 104, October 2020
MISE A JOUR : Santé Publique a publié le bilan de la grippe 2019-2020 : 3700 death. C’est beaucoup moins que d’ordinaire. Ce chiffre reste donc suspect.
Seasonal flu reportedly claimed very few lives this year. How much exactly? We do not know! Officially, at least 88… So it's very, very little. What we are being explained, is that the social distancing imposed to counter the coronavirus epidemic has helped reduce the incidence of influenza. For WHO, : "The emergence of COVID-19, spread by respiratory transmission, required the implementation of physical distancing measures throughout the European region, which probably contributed to an abrupt end of the influenza season ”.
This claim is only a guess not supported by scientific data. To have proof, flu statistics should be able to be relied on for the 2019-2020 season. Or, as specified by the WHO, "After 2 weeks of high influenza activity, country reporting of influenza data was halted from late February due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and became more and more rare over the following months ".
Public health France, contacted by me confirms : "Specific COVID-19 surveillance has replaced influenza surveillance. In the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the flu surveillance report has not been completed. We hope to be able to take stock as soon as possible ".
But how to carry out an assessment when the usual epidemiological surveillance has simply been stopped? The results provisional that we are given in France is ridiculous : 88 death between november 2019 and early March 2020. This is incredibly little because it only concerns cases in intensive care. We don't know anything about influenza deaths at home or in nursing homes. While the flu kills 10,000 on average every year.
What do the flu tests say ?
As part of the annual influenza surveillance, you should know that, every year, tests are carried out in hospitals or in town medicine to assess the importance of the influenza virus among sick people. The latest epidemiological bulletin (week 11, i.e. early March) of Public Health France thus evokes 48 % positive influenza tests in city medicine and only 12 % at the hospital. Concretely, this means that the cases attributed to the flu are not necessarily people who have the flu virus, although they all had flu-like symptoms. These people may as well be carriers of another virus or bacteria. The fact remains that they are counted among the victims of an acute respiratory infection (IRA), the main criterion for counting influenza cases (voir mon article about it).
From the week 12, tests have been reoriented in favor of covid. " In Week 11, in ambulatory medicine (Sentinels Network), nasopharyngeal samples have been suspended, time to allow the physicians participating in the surveillance to receive the appropriate protective equipment to continue the samples, explains Public Health France in its latest newsletter dedicated to influenza. The search for SARS-CoV-2 will be systematically carried out from the week 12 on nasopharyngeal samples sent by doctors from the Sentinels Network ”. Autrement dit, analysts will have no basis for comparison to know the proportion of cases of influenza and other respiratory viruses compared to cases of covid-19.
Of tests that say nothing about actual Covid mortality
PCR test for covid-19 suffers from unreliability (see my article : an epidemic of false positives): it is not very specific and could prove to be positive in the event of infection with another virus. On the other hand, a positive case for covid-19 may be asymptomatic and therefore require no treatment. But it will still be counted in the statistics, whereas for influenza surveillance, it is first of all the clinical diagnosis that makes it possible to obtain or refine the statistics.
Brief, analysis of PCR tests cannot really tell us whether people who test positive for covid – 19 may have the flu instead! Besides, Professor Raoult, of the Institut Infection Méditerranée in Marseille, who developed a serious PCR test, tip about 21 % false positives among patients who come for a second test in their hospital. If these people had died in the meantime, they would therefore have been declared dead from the coronavirus. The question of the reliability of the tests undermines the official figures of the number of deaths attributed to covid-19.
Seasonal excess mortality linked to confinement
In the end, only overall mortality, and especially the seasonal excess mortality, lets us know if we really have experienced a significant epidemic episode, whether it is flu or coronaviral…
"The daily average of deaths from all causes during epidemic periods of 4 recent epidemics of influenza syndromes is 1.953 deaths per day. Along With 2.456 deaths per day, the increase in mortality from influenza is only 25.8% ", explains the newspaper France Soir, one of the few French media concerned with the contradictory debate (an ethical rule of journalism in the process of disappearing ...). "We cannot rule out the hypothesis that these 25 to 27% of additional deaths with Covid-19 may be attributable to the deleterious effects of generalized confinement… ”, concluded France Evening.
In other words, seasonal excess mortality 2020, officially attributed to the covid-19 virus, could simply be a side effect of managing the health crisis : confinement, prohibition of antiobiotics such as azthromicin (not to mention the hydroxychloroquine controversy), rejection of intensive care admissions of people over 75 years and especially residents of nursing homes, bottling of cases in covid units (reserved for a small number of referral hospitals), suspension of routine care and "non-urgent" operations at the hospital, etc.. For Professor Christian Peronne, author of the pamphlet "Is there a mistake they did not make, the sacred union of incompetence with arrogance "would have resulted in 25,000 preventable deaths in France.
For Perronne, these deaths could have been avoided if we had allowed the doctors to treat normally, especially with antibiotics to avoid bacterial superinfection. For the first time in the history of epidemics, city medicine has been sidelined by a deadly health mantra: " there is no treatment ". For the benefit of protocols decided in high places, which directed towards Doliprane then, in case of aggravation, towards hospitalization and ventilation (recognized as deleterious now). Let us recall that in France the treatment protocol was dubbed by a scientific crisis council whose experts touched some 450 000 euros from pharmaceutical companies 5 dernières années.
30 000 deaths linked to health policy ?
Is confinement ultimately the only one responsible for the excess mortality of 26 %, as requested by the newspaper France Soir? Yes, answer Denis Rancourt, Marine Baudin and Jérémie Mercier, in a study on containment deaths published on the ResearchGate platform. "We are convinced that the 'COVID peak' is artificial. The government's response to COVID-19 is responsible for 30 200 death in France, not COVID-19 acting alone ”.
Tout d’abord, COVID-19 did not generate unusual mortality during the winter season 2019-2020 en France. To look of all-cause mortality analyzed since 1946 en France, any statistical difference is only observed for winter 2019-2020. Load winter mortality remained within the norm.
Effectively, when we look at the November data from INSEE 2019 to march 2020, we see that when the confinement was declared there was no unusual excess mortality. Alone the hypothesis of a future health crisis, forecast based epidemiological (from an uncertain case fatality rate) could motivate this political decision, absolutely no field data.
from November to March
Over the period 1994-2020, the authors observe two anomalies in the rate of seasonal mortality: a peak summer mortality 2003 corresponding to the fatal heat wave episode known and referenced, and a "peak-COVID", arrived late in the season winter at the end of March 2020. Never seen in the history of French epidemiology since 1946.
Source Insee: in November 2019 we can see a first peak, probably linked to the usual flu epidemic. It is followed by a second peak, the magnitude of which could be due to health policy.
This "COVID peak" is most likely artificial : it happened suddenly (one month wide) on a date without previous in the seasonal cycle of all-cause mortality (mid peak to late March). It is absent in many countries and the scale of this peak varies considerably from jurisdiction to jurisdiction (34 States Americans do not have a "COVID peak").
The study suggests that around 40 mass and unprecedented strict isolation especially of the elderly, sick and healthy, together and separately, killed a lot of people they. These measures would thus have caused approximately 30 200 death in France in March and April 2020.
By analyzing all-cause mortality data from 1946 to 2020, the authors also identified a large and steady increase in all-cause mortality that started around 2008, too large to be explained by population growth given the age pyramid, but which could be linked to the economic crisis of 2008 and its long-term societal consequences.
It should also be remembered that the number of people with several pathologies has continued to increase in France since 10 years : for example, the number of people with long-term illness (ALD) is passed from 9 million to 11 millions en 10 years.
Probably 7000 flu deaths 2019/2020 en France
From of these estimates, we must be able to find the seventh company from the general excess mortality, by counting the deaths of confinement. What do the official figures ?
Between November 2019 and july 2020, there have been, according to INSEE, 476.200 death. It is 15.000 more dead than in 2017/2018. If we compare the months, the deadliest was January 2017 avec près de 67 000 morts, more than the months of March or April 2020.
|death rateit's globale||2019/2020||2018/2019||2017/2018||2016/2017|
If we subtract the deaths linked to management catastrophic health crisis, about 25 000 according to Professor Perronne, this would give the following excess mortality: 476 200 less 25,000, or 451,200 deaths between November 2019 and july 2020. This is comparable and even lower than previous years over the same period : 455 220 including 12,000 influenza deaths (2018-2019), 461 111 including 13,000 influenza deaths (2017-2018) and 454,755 including 14,000 flu deaths (2016-2017).
Those years, the number of people dying from a cause other than influenza can be estimated at 443,220 in 2019, 448 111 in 2018 et 440 755 en 2017, which gives an average general mortality, except in case of flu, of 444,028 people. In the end, the flu epidemic 2019-2020 can be estimated at: 451 200 (excess mortality without deaths from confinement) less 444,028 (average general mortality excluding influenza) or 7,172 deaths.
This figure appears much more realistic than the 88 deaths officially listed in intensive care units in France until March, and makes the estimate of Christian Perronne and Denis Rancourt plausible, between 25,000 and 30,000 additional deaths not attributable to influenza or covid, but rather to health management around the covid.
En Belgique, an equally deadly confinement?
We have studied the figures for Belgium and establishes percentages of the increase in mortality in 2020 sur les 209 first days of the year (until 6 July 2020, Source : Statbel). The worst variation is 18% compared to 2011 but only 6% compared to the year “very murderous” 2015. Compared to the average of deaths during 209 first days of the year of last eleven years, Belgium had in 2020 about 11% more deaths.
These 11% are they really attributable to the influenza? Like in France, is not this increase rather related damage to confinement and disorganization of the healthcare system? At final, seasonal flu 2019-2020 in Belgium is probably located also in its usual average.
|diff % 2020/n||5,858||13,138||8,708||7,143||10,045||10,973||–|
In Swiss, no excess mortality ...
The figures from the Federal Statistical Office of the Swiss Confederation are even more eloquent to illustrate the gap between the reality projected by the media and epidemic reality. In this country which officially displays 230 deaths from coronavirus per million inhabitants (against 450 for France and 850 for Belgium), excess mortality has not budged an iota. If excess mortality there have been, it was in 2015. But at the time, no sanitary alarm, no count of the dead and no masks ...
The figures show that the total number of deaths in 32 first weeks of the year 2020 is inferior to 2019 and 2015.
Death of the week 1 to 30 in Switzerland from 2015 to 2020
|39 578||39 749||39 365||39 059||37 103||40 896|
Covid-19, and virus bénin
We have seen at the beginning of this article that it is difficult to separate the number of cases of influenza and the coronavirus-related death toll. The coronavirus epidemic may have succeeded the seasonal flu epidemic and generate excess mortality that is several weeks with the usual seasonal epidemic peaks (January, February). Denis Rancourt's study shows that the Covid peak is probably artificial, therefore linked to the management of the crisis, but she does not exclude the existence of a respiratory infection linked to the coronavirus. What especially contests this study, this is the severity of this virus.
Besides, lethality varied considerably from region to region. Some even register less excess mortality this year. France's national excess mortality comes mainly from two heavily populated regions : Eastern France and the Paris region. What would have happened if we had treated people as Professor Raoult did in Marseille or certain general practitioners ?
In its situation report dated 18 August 2020, titled "What we can learn from mortality data", Raoult recalls that among the people treated in his hospital, there was only 0,4% of deceased (18 deaths over more than 4000 patients). According to him, just in retirement homes (EHPAD), we could at least have avoided 5000 death. For Raoult, mortality from covid-19 is comparable to that of other coronaviruses diagnosed so far. This is the care, especially people at risk, which generated the excess mortality observed in certain regions, not the lethality of the virus, greatly overestimated by WHO experts.
In conclusion, the flu has probably killed 7,000 people this year in France. Other respiratory viruses, like covid-19 but not only, were able to generate a few thousand additional deaths. But it is wrong to say that the coronavirus killed 30,000 people in a historic epidemic. What is historical, it is the bankruptcy of health policy that has managed to kill more people this year than all the seasonal respiratory viruses combined !
 “Flu season 2019-2020 : reorientation of surveillance systems for COVID-19 ”, https://www.euro.who.int/
 Influenza epidemiological bulletin, week 11. Season 2019-2020.
Published on 18 March 2020. https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr
 Also read my article on this subject on neo health : "Where has the seasonal flu gone?? »Investigation of statistics of the number of deaths linked to the coronavirus ”, the 15 May 2020.
 “Covid Chronicle 3 - The Is Covid-19 more deadly than a seasonal flu ? My eye !" Published on 03/07/2020. Francesoir.fr
 118.000 euros from MSD, 116.000 euros from Roche : should we be concerned about the links between labs and scientific advice ? By Étienne Girard, the 03/04/2020, marianne.net
 Rancourt, D. & Baudin, Marine & Mercier, Jeremiah. (2020). Evaluation of the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in France, from all-cause mortality 1946-2020.