No seasonal excess mortality this year ? Update on the figures…

Is the anxiety-provoking media treatment with the daily death tally really justified ?  Containment, draconian measure, is it based on exceptional mortality ?

While we are already at the end of April, it's time to take stock of the seasonal mortality figures from all causes. In France : just connect to the website of the National Institute of Statistics, l’Insee. I relied on two sets of numbers:  the first concerns mortality for the month of March 2020, the second the mortality data per month  depuis 1946.

The latest figures for global mortality March

The effects on mortality from the coronavirus epidemic are not felt until the third week of March, with staggered excess mortality, compared to the two previous years.

Winter 2020 compared to the previous three


Overall mortality 2019/2020 2018/2019 2017/2018 2016/2017
March 61 404 52 400 59 233 49 159
February 49 700 54 800 51 137 51 563
January 55 800 59 200 58 611 66 990
December 53 800 51 902 55 876 56 223
Novembre 50 800 48 718 48 981 48 742
Total season 271 504 267 020 273 838 272 677

The reality of the numbers contrasts discourse on maddening death toll from coronavirus. The Director General of Public Health France, Jérôme Salomon reaffirmed Monday 20 April that the Covid-19 killed "Far more than all influenza epidemics, even the most deadly, and more than the heatwave of summer 2003 " who had done 19 000 dead ...

20 000 officially dead, it's a lot, but the figures show that France is used to high mortalities, around 55,000 deaths per month in winter. For the record, every year 600 000 death in France. The number of daily deaths is generally between 1 500 in summer and 1 800 in winter. What the numbers show us this winter, is that there is no overall excess mortality, at least not until the end of March (271 504 death in 2019/2020 against 273,838 in 2017/2018). No offense to Mr. Salomon ...

Why this figure for global mortality is a good benchmark ?

The "death rate" of a virus, expressed as a percentage of infected people, allows to appreciate the future mortality of an epidemic. This figure for covid-19 was established at 3,4 % (by WHO), justifying the catastrophic forecasts of international experts and the draconian measures that we know in many countries. But ... Some opinions refer to the figure of 0,1%[1].  This expert debate is difficult for the general public to decide! In the end, only global mortality allows us to know if we really experienced a significant excess mortality episode this winter. Apparently this is far from the case at the moment.

On an international scale, the epidemic made in four months 230 000 worldwide deaths, i.e. the equivalent of two days of death under normal circumstances (he usually dies around 150 000 people per day in the world).

We don't know not the number of contaminated

Since not all deaths have been tested to see if they are carriers of the virus, it is highly probable that the figure of 20,000 deaths in France includes people who died of other pre-existing pathologies. The latter were imprecisely "classified Covid-19", either on the basis of a test, either on the basis of a suspected coronavirus based on a clinical diagnosis (see this note administrative and the educational file of Public Health France). People with Covid-19 symptoms are not routinely screened. Regarding the number of "confirmed cases", about 120,000, which also includes asymptomatic people, the results are not that reliable: efficiency at 100 % of the test is not established, also good for false negatives (voir la Swiss medical journal) than false positives (see at the very end of this Sciences et Vie article, the findings of an eminent German virologist). Conclusion, the officially posted virus death rate cannot be trusted!

This is where global mortality can help. We will have to wait until May to include the deaths in April 2020 and thus be able to really compare this epidemic with the usual seasonal flu epidemics. It is indeed possible that the peak is shifted to the months of March or April and not, as in 2017 in the month of January. Ceci étant dit, it will take a number of additional deaths to reverse the overall mortality data this winter, because until the end of February, they showed that this epidemic was less severe than the others !

This calls into question the profusion of images of overcrowded hospitals that, although very real, do not reflect the reality experienced in other establishments (not dedicated to the care of suspected patients). This also calls into question the decision to confine and the position taken by experts on the basis of mathematical projections.. While in January and February 2020, mortality was lower than the previous three years, should the health emergency be declared? What about the health or socio-economic consequences of confinement?? Are the deaths linked to confinement listed?? It would take a commission of inquiry to shed light on these issues, in particular to find out whether the confinement prevented deaths or, on the contrary, worsened the situation.

One thing is for sure, containment was not based on exceptional mortality. He was motivated by mortality projections based on a case fatality rate of 3%, another subject of controversy…

And the seasonal flu in it all?

The French public health agency recorded for Winter 2018-2019 " about 8 100 deaths attributed to influenza ”. Apparemment, in 2019/2020, the deaths melted like snow. Selon un bulletin of 4 March 2020, 72 people died from the flu between November and early March. But this figure, included in the media, is in fact only that of the intensive care unit. How many people have died from the flu in total ? No information on this subject ! In terms of data communication, this is a surprising change from the usual newsletters. In previous years Public Health France reported on a total of deaths, why doesn't she do it today ? The answer in this post !

This article was published in the Pure Santé network, of the Health Nature Innovation group. To follow my next articles, you can join the network.


Voir aussi: "COVID-19 death rate may be 'considerably less than 1%', on

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6 Comment “No seasonal excess mortality this year ? Update on the figures…”

  1. JUST says:

    from the start I understood immediately that the intention was first to silence all popular demands under the pretext of an extremely serious health risk…I just spent three years studying at USTL in Montpellier for a master's degree in psycho-clinical medicine before going to follow a third cycle in Nanterre…just enough to whet my curiosity a little more about human immunity and invasive medical practices causing real side effects that are sometimes very serious and lethal.(Nosocomial diseases.) So I searched a lot. I had a great interest in it, having had 7 sons who have suffered harassment from national education for vaccinations when officially they have no rights…The code of medical ethics is very clear on the individual right to refuse any medical act…We have been mistreated, despised, violated in our fundamental rights, quite simply because these pseudoscientists associated with corrupt politicians and other psychological advisers have played on “fear of death” individuals..a “good placement” for all these people considering that the people are mainly ignorant and petochards.

  2. No seasonal excess mortality in 2020

    The Empty Case / 19 is a FAKE:

    it seems that we can easily explain the small peak at the end of March / April

    by the ministerial circular inviting hospitals to let the old die by sedatizing them

  3. Christobal says:

    Thank you. Finally a little common sense in this collective madness.

  4. larose helene says:

    The small peak can also be explained by the difference in the calculation of the number of deaths operated from the end of March: before 31 March, health facilities could ONLY declare a case related to the coronavirus if it had been proven by a biological test.

    Since 31 March, they can do it with the ONLY proof "a chest scanner suggesting a Covid-19 diagnosis", with the risk of including other respiratory infections / diseases in these figures.

    This is an excellent “way” to inflate the figures to make believe in a pandemic.

  5. Brunati says:

    Yesterday I did the same calculation as you, taking the Insee data and adding the month of April to 2020, 2018 and 2017. There is an excess mortality that I quantified at 16284 additional deaths compared to the year 2018 ( 66700 -50416 ) . On the rest I agree with you. I listened carefully to Denis Rancourt and I share his hypothesis to explain the ” very thin peak ” observed in March-April 2020 in a few weeks, by the catastrophic effect of the announcement of the pandemic with total containment and the death toll on TV every night, something that has certainly stressed many people and especially the most psychologically fragile, the oldest, the already sick, etc.. In short, all those who should be protected as a priority ! But there are still a lot of people who think that this virus is the cause of all the evils it is really out of the ordinary and very dangerous in itself, which is still far from being proven despite the incessant efforts of the mainstream media and those in power who surf on the fear of the weak…of spirit, to get this idea into people's heads.

  6. Daltin says:

    Thank you Madam for your analyzes, which the media are careful not to disseminate, they come to delegitimize all measures “sanitary” taken by this cruel and tyrannical government. And it feels good.

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